Nothing is better then a fine coffee
I’ve recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn’t an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I’ve substantially increased my performance in the IRA!
- Iflantheman,
Feb 8, 2010
I can’t believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.
- Zucko,
Sep 4, 2009
Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage’s portfolio management (I hadn’t read before). I’m an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!
- Neverworkagain ,
Jul 16, 2009
Well that was a fun day. Cashed out my GS 140 calls for about 35% profit and my AAPL calls for 38% gain. Not bad for 40 minutes of work. Back to 85% cash.
- Singapore Steve,
Jun 4, 2009
Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about. Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase.
- Smasher,
May 28, 2009
Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts. You have so many of these awesome little tricks in your playbook that it really amazes me. I toally love your analogy by the way: Do you want insurance that you have to pay for, or do you want insurance that pays you?
- Craigzooka,
Apr 25, 2009
A truly great website with a lot of information for investors. Whether you are a novice, seasoned, or a professional there is a lot to be gained about stock options and options trading from this very informative website.
- ZKatkin,
Mar 21, 2009
Sold out my AAPL mar95 calls. Up over 100% today on them!
- Singapore Steve,
Mar 17, 2009
Opt, I think the hardest thing is being disciplined enough to trade with you. Atleast now when I see something go in the red I know how much I’m going to loose and that I will profit somewhere else and have enough money left at the end of the day to trade again. Thanks for all your hard work! My stress levels are down 75% and I have even made a small profit in the short time I’ve been here
- Mopar,
Feb 9, 2009
WOW, glad I went bearish… Phil, thanks for the help on the QID calls yesterday, I turned it into a partial cover rolling down to the Feb 52s selling the 55s 1/2 covered. Sold 1/2 and now lowered my cost basis to $4.38 on the $52s (fully covered).
- Texasmotion,
Jan 31, 2009
Washington Post:
Furious at the tempest over the Tea Party — the scattershot citizen uprising against big government and wild spending — Annabel Park did what any American does when she feels her voice has been drowned out: She squeezed her anger into a Facebook status update.
let's start a coffee party . . . smoothie party. red bull party. anything but tea. geez. ooh how about cappuccino party? that would really piss 'em off bec it sounds elitist . . . let's get together and drink cappuccino and have real political dialogue with substance and compassion.
Read the whole story: Washington Post
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Know something we don't? E-mail us at huffpolitics@huffingtonpost.com
Coffee filters …… Who knew! And you can buy 1,000 at the Dollar Tree for almost nothing even the large ones.
1. Cover bowls or dishes when cooking in the microwave. Coffee filters make excellent covers.
2. Clean windows, mirrors, and chrome… Coffee filters are lint-free so they’ll leave windows sparkling.
3. Protect china by separating your good dishes with a coffee filter between each dish.
4. Filter broken cork from wine. If you break the cork when opening a wine bottle, filter the wine through a coffee filter.
5. Protect a cast-iron skillet. Place a coffee filter in the skillet to absorb moisture and prevent rust.
6. Apply shoe polish. Ball up a lint-free coffee filter.
7. Recycle frying oil. After frying, strain oil through a sieve lined with a coffee filter.
8. Weigh chopped foods. Place chopped ingredients in a coffee filter on a kitchen scale.
9. Hold tacos. Coffee filters make convenient wrappers for messy foods.
10. Stop the soil from leaking out of a plant pot. Line a plant pot with a coffee filter to prevent the soil from going through the drainage holes.
11. Prevent a Popsicle from dripping. Poke one or two holes as needed in a coffee filter….
12. Do you think we used expensive strips to wax eyebrows? Use strips of coffee filters..
13. Put a few in a plate and put your fried bacon, French fries, chicken fingers, etc on them. It soaks out all the grease.
14. Keep in the bathroom. They make great “razor nick fixers.”
15. As a sewing backing. Use a filter as an easy-to-tear backing for embroidering or appliqueing soft fabrics.
16. Put baking soda into a coffee filter and insert into shoes or a closet to absorb or prevent odors.
17. Use them to strain soup stock and to tie fresh herbs in to put in soups and stews.
18. Use a coffee filter to prevent spilling when you add fluids to your car.
19. Use them as a spoon rest while cooking and clean up small counter spills.
20. Can use to hold dry ingredients when baking or when cutting a piece of fruit or veggies.. Saves on having extra bowls to wash.
21. Use them to wrap Christmas ornaments for storage.
22. Use them to remove fingernail polish when out of cotton balls.
23. Use them to sprout seeds.. Simply dampen the coffee filter, place seeds inside, fold it and place it into a plastic baggie until they sprout.
24. Use coffee filters as blotting paper for pressed flowers. Place the flowers between two coffee filters and put the coffee filters in phone book..
25. Use as a disposable “snack bowl” for popcorn, chips, etc.
OH YEAH THEY ARE GREAT TO USE IN YOUR COFFEE MAKERS TOO.
<P>–from Rev CarlR
tipped us off about his 112 LED coffee table. This 12-ups the LED matrix from Friday and 31-ups the Shiftbrite table. Driving this grid is an ATmega328 in i2c slave mode. It listens for display data from a second ATmega328 and uses that to set the array of TLC5940 driven LEDs appropriately. Separating the processing microcontroller from the display microcontroller allows for fast and smooth display changes that can be seen after the break. table exhibits exquisite cable management, clean code, and an amazing amount of flexibility. Maybe [Caleb Kraft] will finally pony up the dough and make this project for his own home.
waited until he saw some other LED tables to send us a link to his hack. This is obviously an awesome project, one that we want to see just as much as our readers do. So please, don’t wait for someone else to stumble upon your project, send us a tip once you’re done sharing the details.
Tired of hearing about the Tea Parties? WaPo introduces the “Coffee Party”, which aims to “promote civility and inclusiveness in political discourse, engage the government not as an enemy but as the collective will of the people, push leaders to enact the progressive change for which 52.9 percent of the country voted in 2008.”
All fine. But where’s the liquor-based political discussion group?
15
comments:
s_baghaii
said…
I think people find really strong opinions entertaining. You have always been a middle of the road type of financial blogger, and this has helped me think more critically and less emotionally about my investments. Some of the bloggers like to say crazy things about how outraged they are. They can be entertaining, and they have a large following that includes a lot of crazy gold bugs. But sometimes they are definitely way out there.
6:59 AM
Roger Nusbaum
said…
you are right outrage abounds
7:02 AM
Frank
said…
A few years ago I sat in 'media training' — as requested by my company management for portfolio managers (this was large recognizable financial name).
The instructors were not investment people, they were media specialists talking about how to interact publicly.
It became obvious that they were encouraging us to 'make big market calls' —- I raised my hand and said 'you know, we have spent a lot of time on our customer marketing book outlining our investment process for institutional investors — NOWHERE in that presentation are 'big market calls' part of our process.'
The media specialists didn't care — they said "you need to stand out, people want to know your forecast'…
Our strategy was about executing a process based on finding solid reward/risk situations on relative and absolute basis as best we can.
So I see all these people blogging and whining and outraged. It makes me think how excellent ETF's are… No BS, just performance of an index — plain and simple.
8:45 AM
Anonymous
said…
Morning, Roger–Would you weigh in at some point with your views on the inflation/deflation debate?
I think I recall you saying that you're in the inflation camp, but that mega-inflation is probably off the table. I also remember your article at thestreet.com warning about trouble in bond land.
Thank you for your thoughts.
9:12 AM
RW
said…
Count me in the "fat tail" camp …I don't know whether deflation or hyperinflation is in the cards only that both scenarios have a higher probability of occurring than I am comfortable with unhedged. Agree with Frank here, those who make market calls only get to claim bragging rights among those with a weak appreciation for longitudinal probability distributions.
I took a philosophy of science course many years ago even though it was not required in my program — (my adviser considered it foolish, not for the first time) — and became so interested in the subject I took another (whereupon my adviser considered me a jerk, not the first there either ) but, cutting to the chase, your summation of Popper is essentially correct: It only takes one contrary case to falsify a scientific assertion or even an entire theory assuming the framework possesses qualities that are arguably systematic, independently verifiable and widely agreed upon; e.g., http://tinyurl.com/yeq5umg
Science is often denigrated when it produces results that contradict prejudice or powerful interests but just as frequently trotted out as an argument when empirical evidence is equivocal or lacking. In the case of investment systems, Harry Brown's screed has served as a caution for me for many years viz
Efforts to understand and control the apparent randomness of financial events often follow a predictable pattern:
1. Grain of Truth: Stated as a generality a principle makes sense and provides a useful rule of thumb.
2. Over the Edge: Specifics are added and the principle is stretched into an analytic stance.
3. Scientific Posture: Mathematics and the name of science are invoked, there is real structure here!
4. Coronation: Fantasy becomes enthroned, the rule of thumb is now a tenet of natural law.
5. Sweet Superiority: Followers become the elite, better off than those not "with it" when things go wrong.
6. Dogma: But there never is a need to acknowledge that something actually went wrong because:
a. It really did work but was offset by factors that were stronger in this case.
b. The system is perfect but people practice it imperfectly.
c. This was the exception that proves the rule.
d. It happened exactly as expected; you must have misunderstood the expectation.
e. It was a clear cut, textbook example, of the principle working on an inverted basis.
f. The system is perfect but is being sabotaged by [name scapegoat here]!
g. The result has been delayed, pressure is building, the effect will be even more powerful …later.
NB: This seems to be a fairly accurate description of what is currently happening with the framework supporting the real business cycle (RBC), efficient market and perfect information theories in economics.
9:59 AM
Roger Nusbaum
said…
my thoughts about inflation/deflation have not changed much and I have mentioned this before.
basically i believe the more probable long term risk is that of inflation. i think inflation will be more than we have lived with in many years to the point of being uncomfortable but not hyper.
We have clearly had an asset deflation that impacted almost every asset class certainly stocks and real estate. Despite the spin some people put on the data I believe that deleveraging is going on and lending is contracting. These are deflationary and I believe that this is where I would turn out to be wrong if I end up being wrong.
A deflationary environment for a couple of years is not really a worry to me even if it impedes recovery but at some point it becomes a real macro problem if lending does not start to flow.
10:00 AM
Anonymous
said…
In the short to medium term things can seem very random, but in the long run I strongly disagree that the market is random. If you believe it to be random in the long run maybe you do not fully understand the factors that influence the market.
This is not to say it is 100% predictable or all factors have the same dominance or consistency all the time or that the correlation is 100%. Many people start with a bogus model (like Keynesian) and will never understand why the markets work the way they do. But monetary policy is an extremely useful base for understanding the economy and the markets even if it is not perfect. If you require perfect models you may be frustrated over time. It is just not that simple even though it is predictable in the long run.
SEG
11:11 AM
Roger Nusbaum
said…
SEG my context was short term
11:21 AM
Anonymous
said…
Roger are you reading Carl Popper because of Nassim Taleb ?
12:09 PM
Roger Nusbaum
said…
probably. that is where I first heard about Popper and have seen his ideas references in a couple of other places but yes that is probably why I'm interested in learning a little more
12:17 PM
Anonymous
said…
I agree short term it can be quite erratic.
12:54 PM
Anonymous
said…
I'll echo the first poster that Roger does a very nice job of providing actionable portfolio process ideas and concepts. I've learned a lot….
In a world of information overload – much of it screaming LOOK HERE NOW – I'm always having to review and ask myself if this is entertainment or marketing or worthwhile substance that could be beneficial. "Just hype it baby, the rest will take care of itself"
RW – where did you get your 1-6 from?
SEG – man you are becoming obsessed with that Keynesian stuff. The last 30 years- no matter who's in office the outcome seems to be:
a) deficits don't matter
b) corporate owned politicians
c) ensure the super wealthy and powerful feed at the trough first and for as long as they want
d) cheap easy money for anyone and everyone
Anyone pipe in: Speaking of the problems of generalities: what number of years are you assigning to
short term / medium term / long term
1:11 PM
Anonymous
said…
I wish everyone would discuss things more here. I am lonely and this is my favorite place to visit. I only wish I was kidding. Seriously.
4:00 PM
Anonymous
said…
Hockey is much better in HD.
Too bad we lost today. It was at least close. Unfortunately, the great white North had a better team.
SEG
4:16 PM
Roger Nusbaum
said…
don't know how much better Canada was but it was very noteworthy to me the extent to which Canada controlled the puck in OT. Hats off to them–a great game and a fun tourney.
4:18 PM
hyperlouisiana